DOING THE MATH ON 2011-12 EXQUISITE BASKETBALL WITH A MICHAEL JORDAN AUTO IN EVERY CASE
Everyone would like to add a Michael Jordan autographed card to their collection. And if you had at least $1200 to spend, you could possibly win an Exquisite Michael Jordan auto on eBay. For a really great looking Exquisite Patch auto you probably need to bid $5000 to win.
Of the last 26 Michael Jordan Exquisite Autographs sold on eBay (as of 14 Oct), this is how they break down: 8 sold between $1125 to $1999, 6 sold between $2000 to $2999, 3 sold between $3000 to $3999, 2 sold between $4000 to $4999, 3 sold between $5000 to $5999, 1 sold at $6590, 1 sold at $7500, 1 sold at $10000, and 1 sold at $11100. The average selling price was $3635.69 and the mean was $2800.
2011-12 Exquisite Basketball is said to deliver at least one Jordan Auto per three box case. Sell sheets say there is one UD Black autographed card in each box of Exquisite. There are a total of 5053 UD Black Autographs or 1684 cases (or less) of Exquisite, which means there are 1684 or possibly more Michael Jordan Autographs in 2011-12 Exquisite Basketball. That brings up the question, will all these new Michael Jordan autos bring down the value of Jordan autos?
I expect for the next year or so, there will be less demand for older Jordan autographed cards, because collectors will be focusing their attention on the new stuff. It will probably be a "bad time" for selling older Jordan autos. Seeing the response to 2011-12 Fleer Retro Jordan non-autographed inserts, I would say new Jordan autographed cards will sell high enough. Why?
First of all, many of the people who bust Exquisite boxes are looking for a Jordan auto to keep for their personal collection, and are not going to sell them on eBay anytime soon. That is, unless they start selling for some some huge amount like the Precious Metal Gems. Second, many of the cases (40% to 60%) won't get busted until prices go up (as did Fleer Retro).
You think current prices ($940 per box) of 2011-12 Exquisite are high? Well, 2008-09 boxes consistently sell on eBay for over $1500, and they don't deliver at least one Jordan Auto per case. Also, Mr. Gregg Kohn recently tweeted, "95% of the cases will have a Lebron James autograph." And the third box in the case will have autos of the greatest basketball players of all-time (Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Bill Russell, Dr. J, David Robinson, Hakeen Olajuwon and Jerry West). Other high selling autographs include Grant Hill, Anfernee Hardaway, Dennis Rodman and Alonzo Morning. With five autographs per box, average value per box of 2011-12 Exquisite Basketball should easily exceed $1500.
There is some validity to the concern for lack of top level Rookie Cards in 2011-12 Exquisite Basketball. But what would you rather pull, a rookie who scored 10 points per game (at $1500 per box as in the case of 2008-09 Exquisite) or a guaranteed "Greatest Player of All-Time" Autograph (at $940 per box in 2011-12 Exquisite) with a one in three chance of pulling a Jordan auto (averaging $2000)? At $940 per box, 2011-12 Exquisite Basketball looks to be a smart buy.