STORING AWAY FACTORY SEALED BASKETBALL BOXES IS THE SAFEST WAY TO INVEST IN SPORTS CARDS

Four months ago, I wrote an article on the unprecedented growth of NBA Basketball products in 2020.  I focused on the one week growth from July 19th to July 26th.  I was addressing the possibility we had already hit a peak on single cards and unopen box prices.

I came to the conclusion there was still room for basketball box prices to go up 20% or more over the next 12 months and predicted that 2018-19 Prizm Hobby would hit $8000 by July 2021.  As of today, just four months later, 2018-19 Prizm Hobby Basketball is retailing for $7500.  Has it hit its ceiling?  No, not yet.

Check out these current retail box prices:

2012-13 Prizm Hobby Basketball ....$15000

2013-14 Prizm Hobby Basketball....$13000

As more and more Prizm Hobby Basketball gets busted and available unopen boxes continue to decline, box prices will continue to go up.  Looking at the retail price increases in just the last four months, putting away unopen basketball products continue to be a great investment opportunity.

While everyone is in love with 2018-19 basketball product, 2019-20 basketball appears to be the safest bet for higher profit margins.  In the last four months, while most 2018-19 basketball products have gone up 100%, 150%, 200% and more, none of the 2019-20 products have hit 100% and most price increases are at less than 47%.  With a strong rookie class and Zionmania about to restart in late December, look for 2018-19 Basketball prices to jump in 2021.

 .....................................................19/20..................................................18/19

........................................7/19........7/26.......11/26.....UP..............7/19........7/26........11/26......UP
Hoops Hobby.................$350.......$375......$425......13%...........$400.......$450........$795...... 77%
Absolute.........................$500.......$525......$600......14%...........$500.......$500........$800...... 60%
Prizm Hobby.................$1800......$2400.....$3500....46%..........$2500.....$2800.......$7500....168%
Prizm Retail...................$475.......$675.......$1300.....93%..........$1000.....$1200......$3500....192%

Prizm Cello....................$900.......$1200.....$1750.....46%..........$1500.....$1700......$4000....135%
Prizm Choice.................$700.......$900.......$1650.....83%..........$1300.....$1300......$4000....208%

Contenders Hobby........$600.......$800.......$775.......-3%...........$800.......$900........$1375.... 53%
Revolution Hobby..........$325.......$400.......OUT........NA...........$400........$400.......$800.......100%
Donruss Optic Hobby....$630.......$800.......$1000....25%..........$1100......$1400.....$3500.....150% 
Donruss Optic Retail.....$350........$400......$500......25%...........$590........$590.......$1400.....137%
Don Optic Cello..............$650.......$750.......$950......27%...........$800........$900.......$2500.....177%
Select Hobby.................$1100......$1350......$2150....59%..........$1500.......$1600.....$4000.....150%
Court Kings....................$325........$475.......OUT.......NA............$400........$400........$595....... 49%
Crown Royale.................$375........$500.......$420......-16%.........$400........$400........$700....... 75%

Noir.................................$1210......$1400......$1900.....36%.........$1700......$1700......$2750..... 62%
National Treasures........$4050......$4050......$5000.....23%.........$6900......$7500......$10500... 40%
Obsidian..........................$530........$530.......$460......-13%.........$700........$700........$1300..... 86%
Chronicles......................................................$725.......................$700........$750........$1775.....137%

Opulence........................................................$2300.....................$2700......$2700......$3500..... 30%

Encased..........................................................$570.......................$700........$750.......$1300...... 73%
Contenders Optic...........................................$450.......................$700........$700.......$1000...... 43%

Spectra............................................................OUT.......................................................$2500

Black...............................................................$440.......................................................$1300
Immaculate.....................................................$2500.....................................$2000......$4000......100%

Impeccable.....................................................$1000......................................................OUT

Flawless NBA..................................................$6500....................................................$15100
Flawless College.............................................OUT.......................................................$5000

2020 LEAF BEST OF MULTI-SPORT PREMIUM EDITION & 2020 LEAF BEST OF GEM MINT EDITION BOX GROUP BREAK COMING TO SPORTS CARDS PLUS

 

Sports Cards Plus has a long history of customers pulling Super Hits from "Leaf Best of ----," everything from Chris' 2009 Bowman Chrome Mike Trout Autographed Refractor RC BGS 9.5 (Chris actually pulled two of these from our cases) to Nate's 1996 Fleer Michael Jordan RC BGS 9.5.  And , just last week Victor pulled a 2018-19 Prizm Luka Doncic Ruby Wave Prizm RC BGS 9.5.

This year Leaf came out with two new products sure to deliver some of the Greats Hits of All Time!  2020 Leaf Best of Multi-Sport Premium Edition (pictured above) delivers four of the most coveted sports cards in our hobby per box.  Current Market price for this product is $3500 per 4-card box.

2020 Leaf Best of Gem Mint Edition adds another twist to the "Best of" line of products.  All ten cards in this box are "Gem Mint" or better.  That's right, better.  Also included are random inserted BGS "Black Label 10s."  Current Market Price for this product is $3000 per 10-card box.

To make these products available to Sports Cards Plus customers, we will conduct a 14-SPOT RANDOM (4 cards from Best of Multi-Sport Premium Edition and 10 cards from Best of Gem Mint) GROUP BREAK from these two Factory Sealed boxes.

Each $495 Spot gets one random card from two factory sealed boxes (14 total cards).  Call 210-524-2337 or come in to pay for your spot.

2020 HISTORIC AUTOGRAPHS HALF-CENTURY ORIGINALS OFFERS ORIGINAL VINTAGE CARDS AND AUTOGRAPHS OF BABE RUTH, LOU GEHRIG, TY COBB, HONUS WAGNER, WALTER JOHNSON, JACKIE ROBINSON, ROY CAMPANELLA, JIMMIE FOXX, MEL OTT, DIZZY DEAN, CONNIE MACK. SATCHEL PAIGE, JOE DIMAGGIO AND TED WILLIAMS

 

Arriving this Thursday at Sports Cards Plus, a.k.a. The Super Hit Factory is 2020 Historic Autographs Half-Century Originals. This 2-year labor of love embodies what vintage collecting is all about, as Historic Autograph has melded nearly every card series from 1909 through 1949. With T205, T206, T207, M116 Cracker Jacks, E120, E121, E122, V61, Strip card series, Delong, US Caramel, all the Goudey series, Diamond Stars, Batter-Up, 1940 Play Ball, 1941 Play Ball, Tip Tops, both 1948 and 1949 Bowman, R346 Blue Tint, M&P and Sewell Greats - this product has something for everyone.

Our National Pastime has evolved from the pastoral game played on a sunny afternoon in small towns throughout America to a beacon that lit the way for Jackie Robinson to integrate the game. In the first half of the 20th Century, baseball's landscape changed dramatically and Historic Autographs is honoring these years with a product that features cards from 1909 through 1949 - from Walter Johnson to Satchel Paige, Babe Ruth to Jackie Robinson, Ty Cobb to Roy Campanella, Lou Gehrig to Joe DiMaggio and everyone in between. Many HOF players rookies cards are used.

PRODUCT DESCRIPTION

Every box will contain EIGHT cards - each with an original baseball card coupled with the matching player's autograph. Each box will contain ONE Hall of Fame player. Every 6-box case will contain EITHER a Group A player or (2) Group B players. All HOF players appear a minimum of two times with most appearing more than twice.

Group A players are: (3) Babe Ruth, (2) Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson, Napoleon Lajoie, Jackie Robinson, Satchel Paige, Eddie Collins, Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Rogers Hornsby, Tony Lazzeri, Tris Speaker and Roy Campanella.

Group B players are: Mickey Cochrane, Homerun Baker, Jim Bottomley, Kiki Cuyler, Dizzy Dean, Joe DiMaggio, Hank Greenberg, Goose Goslin, Lefty Grove, Harry Heilmann, Chuck Klein, Connie Mack, Rabbit Maranville, Herb Pennock, Eppa Rixey, Al Simmons, Pie Traynor, Dazzy Vance, Arky Vaughan, Paul Waner and Ted Williams.

In addition to the case guarantees of one Group A or (2) Group B players, there are many other big hit cards including, but not limited to; Stan Musial RC, Richie Ashburn RC, Yogi Berra RC, Bob Feller RC, Phil Rizzuto RC, Joe Gordon RC, Bob Lemon RC, Larry Doby RC, Gil Hodges RC, Pee Wee Reese RC, Joe Medwick, Dave Bancroft, Max Carey, Bill Terry, Frankie Frisch, Bill McKechnie, Lefty Gomez RC, Wally Pipp, etc.

Era 1 - 1909-1930 ... cards comes (1) every 3 boxes
Era 2 - 1932-1941 ... (4-6) cards per box
Era 3 - 1943-1949 ... (2-3) cards per box

MANY 2019-20 NBA PRODUCTS GREW 20 % AND MORE IN THE LAST 7 DAYS. WILL 2019-20 NBA PRIZM HOBBY BASKETBALL REACH $8000 PER BOX?

Many 2019-20 Basketball products showed a growth of 20% or more in the last seven days.  Because 2018-19 Basketball products continue to increase in value, many 2019-20 Basketball products continue to promise sizeable investment growth in the next 12 months.  50% growth for many 2019-20 remains a likely possibility.  Products such as National Treasures and Donruss Optic Hobby have the greatest growth potential and are likely to double in value in the next 12 months. 

Thousands of boxes of NBA products are busted each week by Group Breakers and Hobby Shop customers.  These boxes have nearly disappeared at the "Authorized Distributer" level and are now in the hands of the Big Internet Retailers, Group Breakers and Hobby Shops. In the next 12 months we will see if there is a limit on the value of many of these high demand products.  2017 Prizm Hobby Football currently retails for $5000 per box.  2013-14 NBA Prizm Hobby currently sits at $8000 per box while 2013-14 National Treasures retails for $10,000 per box.  Is $8000 per box the likely resting place for 2019-20 Prizm NBA Hobby Basketball?

The columns marked "7/19" and "7/26" reflect retail sale prices from reputable internet retailers on these dates. The percentage behind the 2018-19 product prices reflect the percent difference to 2019-20.  The higher the percentage, the higher the potential growth in the next 12 months.  The prices in green reflect products with the highest potential growth (40% or more annual growth).  The prices in "blue" reflect a potential 30% to 39% annual growth, while those in yellow indicate a likely growth of 20% or more in the next 12 months.

............................................19/20..........................18/19

........................................7/19........7/26...........7/19.......7/26
Hoops Hobby.................$350.......$375..........$400......$450 (120%)
Absolute.........................$500.......$525..........$500......$500 ( 95%)
Prizm Hobby.................$1800......$2400........$2500....$2800 (117%)
Prizm Retail...................$475.......$675..........$1000.....$1200 (178%)
Prizm Cello....................$900.......$1200........$1500.....$1700 (142%)
Prizm Choice.................$700.......$900..........$1300.....$1300 (144%)
Contenders Hobby........$600.......$800...........$800.......$900 (113%)
Revolution Hobby..........$325.......$400...........$400.......$400 (100%)
Donruss Optic Hobby....$630.......$800.........$1100.....$1400 (175%)
Donruss Optic Retail.....$350........$400..........$590.......$590 (148%)
Don Optic Fast Break....$500........$500..........$700.......$700 (140%)
Don Optic Cello..............$650.......$750...........$800......$900 (120%)
Select Hobby.................$1100......$1350........$1500.....$1600 (119%)
Court Kings....................$325........$475..........$400.......$400 ( 84%)
Crown Royale.................$375........$500..........$400.......$400 ( 80%)

Noir.................................$1210......$1400........$1700.....$1700 (121%)
National Treasures........$4050......$4050........$6000.....$7500 (185%)
Obsidian..........................$530........$530..........$700.......$700 (132%)
Chronicles.........................................................$700.......$750

Opulence..........................................................$2700.....$2700

Encased.............................................................$700.......$750
Contenders Optic..............................................$700.......$700
Immaculate.......................................................$2000.....$2100

Flawless NBA...................................................$5000.....$5000
Flawless College..............................................$2100.....$2100

THERE ARE STILL SOME BARGAINS IN 2019-20 NBA BASKETBALL PRODUCTS

You may have experienced "sticker shock" if you just recently checked Basketball prices for the first time in a couple of months.  Just about everything NBA has doubled in price since the end of April.  And, prices for most years' NBA products have gone up 300% since the end of March 2020.  Have NBA box prices peaked?  Are we about to see a downward price correction?  No.  I seriously doubt it.  I believe it is not too late to invest in 2019-20 box products and make respectable money over the next twelve months

Every day, Sports Cards Plus sees new customers walk into our shop, looking for information on the HOT sports card market and asking for advice on what they should buy.  We have had people coming in, looking for products for long term investing.  Although I doubt box products will go up another 300% in the next four months, there is logical reason to believe many NBA products will continue their rise in value over the next twelve months.

The demand for NBA products continues to exceed product availability.  Single card prices for talented rookies and proven super stars continues to go up faster than ever.  This rise in single card prices results in demand for more unopen boxes, which then results in higher box prices.  Although the higher box prices do price most people out of the market, there is always someone looking to buy product, no matter the price.

Current 2013-14 National Treasures NBA Basketball box prices currently retail for $10,000 per box, 2013-14 Flawless NBA boxes are also $10,000 each.  2017 National Treasures NFL boxes are also retailing at $10,000 per box.  So where will it end?  I don't believe it will end until the last box is busted open.

So, where is the smart money.  The highest potential for growth with limited risk (there is always risk)?  Since 2018-19 Basketball has had over a year for prices to reflect demand and potential for growth, below is a cost comparison of 2018-19 NBA products with the same 2019-20 NBA products. (For further examination, we also compared 2017-18 products to 2019-20).  By assuming the current Zion Williamson and Ja Morant demand will continue to be comparable to Luka Doncic and Trae Young, we expect growth for 2019-20 NBA products to approach that of like 2018-19 NBA products.

The percentage behind the 2018-19 product prices reflect the percent difference to 2019-20.  The higher the percentage, the higher the potential growth in the next 12 months.  The prices in green reflect products with the highest potential growth (40% or more annual growth).  The prices in "blue" reflect a potential 30% to 39% annual growth, while those in yellow indicate a likely growth of 20% or more.

Prices below are as of July 19, 2020 as listed by several respected big internet retailers.

............................19/20..........18/19...........17/18
Hoops Hobby.................$350........$400 (114%)........$250 (71%)
Absolute.........................$500........$500 (100%)........$325 (65%)
Prizm Hobby.................$1800.......$2500 (139%)......$1600 (89%)
Prizm Retail...................$475........$1000 (211%)......$525 (111%)
Prizm Cello....................$900........$1500 (167%)
Prizm Choice.................$700........$1300 (186%)
Contenders Hobby........$600.........$800 (133%)........$500 (83%)
Revolution Hobby..........$325........$400 (123%)........$225 (69%)
Donruss Optic Hobby....$630.......$1100 (175%).......$700 (111%)
Donruss Optic Retail.....$350........$590 (169%)........$300 (86%)
Don Optic Fast Break....$500........$700 (140%)........$300 (60%)
Don Optic Cello..............$650........$800 (123%)........$600 (92%)
Select Hobby.................$1100......$1500 (136%)........$900 (82%)
Court Kings....................$325........$400 (123%)
Crown Royale.................$375........$400 (107%)........$250 (67%)
Noir.................................$1210......$1700 (141%).......$900 (74%)
National Treasures........$4050......$6000 (148%)......$3200 (79%)
Obsidian..........................$530........$700 (132%)
Chronicles.......................................$700
Opulence.........................................$2700..................$1500
Encased...........................................$700....................$450
Contenders Optic............................$700
Immaculate.....................................$2000...................$1300
Flawless NBA.................................$5000...................$3600
Flawless College............................$2100...................$1800

NATIONAL TREASURES, FLAWLESS, PRIZM, SELECT, SPECTRA ARE ALL ON SALE THIS WEEK AT SPORTS CARDS PLUS

You don't need a coupon to SAVE BIG at Sports Cards Plus, a.k.a. The Super Hit Factory.  "The NO-Coupon Coupon SALE" continues this week and the SAVINGS are HUGE!







All boxes marked over $100 are $5 OFF
All boxes marked over $200 are $10 OFF
All boxes marked over $500 are $25 OFF
All boxes marked over $1000 are $50 OFF
All boxes marked over $2500 are $100 OFF
---- And, GET a FREE $100 Entry to our July 31st $500 DRAWING with each $100 purchase!

What? You want more? You want BIGGER SAVINGS.... Well, here it is:
..............................BIG Internet Dealers..Our SALE
2017 Prizm Hobby Football.....................$4000....$3699
2017 Flawless NFL Football...................NONE....$12150
2017 Flawless College Football.............NONE.....$6150
2017 Donruss Optic Hobby Football......$1300.....$1199
2017 Encased NFL Football.....................$1000....$925
2017 Contenders Optic Football..............$700......$649
2017 Gold Standard Football...................$750......$699
2017 Preferred Hobby Football................$750......$699
2017 Pantheon Hobby Football...............$1000.....$899

2018 Prizm Hobby Football.....................$1100.....$999
2018 Select Hobby Football......................$800.....$759
2018 National Treasures NFL Football...$2500.....$2349
2018 Flawless NFL Football....................$3250.....$2999
2018 Contenders NFL Hobby Football.....$600.....$549
2018 Donruss Optic Hobby Football........$600.....$549
2018 Limited Hobby Football....................$275.....$225
2018 Obsidian Hobby Football..................$400.....$359
2018 Playbook Hobby Football..................$325.....$289

2019 Flawless NFL Football......................$2850....$2699
2019 Select Hobby Football.......................$600.....$559
2019 Playbook Hobby Football..................$300.....$269
2019 Origins Hobby Football......................$250....$225
2019 Unparalleled Football.........................$250....$225
2019 Gold Standard Football......................$325....$299
2019 Phoenix Football.................................$280....$259
2019 Limited Football..................................$250....$225

2020 Chronicles Draft Picks Football.........$250....$225
2020 Score Hobby Football.........................$150....$139
2020 Prizm Draft Picks Football..................$275....$249
2020 Contenders Draft Picks Football........$180....$169
2020 Leaf Flash Football..............................$140....$129
2020 Luminance NFL Football Pre-Pay.......$250....$199

WHY ARE CARD VALUES AND UNOPEN BOX PRICES SO HIGH AND GOING HIGHER EACH DAY?

Card singles and unopen box products prices seem to be going up daily, and it's not just Michael Jordan, Kobe, Mike Trout and Tom Brady.  Just about everything is shooting up.  The hobby is on fire.  2019 was our best year ever at Sports Cards Plus and, the first four months of 2020 has dwarfed the same time period of 2019.

It used to be that buyers looked at eBay completed sold prices ("comparables") to determine what they should pay for their next purchase.  For more than two months now, single card prices and unopen box prices have gone up so fast that what something sold for a month ago, a week ago or even yesterday, is no indication of what it will sell for today or tomorrow.

On March 24th, COVID-19 force the closing down of in-store retail operations across the United States.  Unemployment is estimated to be 20% or higher.  The stock market crashed by over 30% in just a few days.  It looked bad for retailers.

Up until then, we never put much effort into internet sales.  Our in-store sales were so good, we didn't have time or the desire to diversify our operations.  But then came the forced closedown.  In late March, Sports Cards Plus went scrambling to enhance our on-line sales. The response was an unexpected boom in sales.  Single card values doubled, tripled, and some went up 400% or more.  It resulted in an overwhelming demand for unopen products which resulted in corresponding wholesale and retail box price increases.  But why?

Historically, card values took a dip during sports off-season.  And with all sports closed down, everyone in the sports collecting business feared the worst in late March.  But just the opposite occurred.  Card values quickly took a sharp upward trend...... Why?

Here is my take:

1. Sports cards and memorabilia is purchased with discretionary money.  People who had discretionary money typically were allowed to work from home with during the "stay at home lock-down."  

Because they no longer had to commute to work, they had more free time.  They saved money on gas, car bills (car insurance companies issued rebates for less travel), they were eating at home rather than eating out, and they were spending next to nothing on retail purchases and entertainment.

And then there's the "$1200 Stimulus Check" per person.  With promising good news hitting the television and internet, most people no longer feared the worst.  The long-term future looks good.

What were they to do with this extra discretionary money and extra free time?  They went to the internet because there was no live sports to watch....or bet on.  Many sports fans, some of which were past sports collectors got re-acquainted with today's sports collecting market.  They saw all the great stuff for sale on eBay.  They bought some stuff and like most of us, they started following what they had bought and found values going up because of all the new money entering in the sports collecting market.  This encouraged these new buyers to buy more, hoping for continued success; and continued investing success resulted in more and more buying.

Those which enjoyed sports betting found betting/investing in sports cards to be nearly as exhilarating.  Since just about everything was on a steady upward trend, it was easy money to bet on sports cards.  The only questions being, how high will it go and what/when should one sell?  Since everything continues to go up, the investor continues his quest and inventory depletes. And thus, the sports collecting market remains on a steady upward trend.

2. On March 24th, the Manufacturers were also forced to shut down operations.  They were not allowed to resume operations until about April 30th.  And, they were required to resume at less than full capacity.  This meant that for about six weeks, the "stay at home collectors" had to feed their hunger for sports cards from existing inventories which quickly depleted from the high demand.  High demand and dwindling supply resulted in higher prices.

3. Kobe Bryant's death on January 26th turned Kobe Bryant fans and most NBA fans to eBay to seek and purchase a memento of this NBA great.  Within minutes after his death his cards and memorabilia were gobbled up.  More cards and memorabilia took their place but at much higher prices.  A Kobe Bryant 1996-97 Topps Rookie card (ungraded) which previously sold for about $15 soon sold for $800.

Of course, $800 is much too high for an ungraded version of Kobe's Topps Rookie Card and values later corrected to today's value of about $150 (about 10 times the value for this card on January 25th).  These new eyes on the sports collecting market, whether they picked up a bargain or paid too much for Kobe cards, generated tremendous interest in the sports collecting world.  It open their eyes to possibilities as well as introducing them to our community.

4. New collecting money and skyrocketing prices for new cards, turned attention to the relatively low cost and possibly undervalued rookie cards and star cards of the 70's, 80's and 90's.  Soon these cards increased by 100%, 200% and more.  Unopened "junk wax" which sat on retail shelves at $10, $20, and $30 per box, doubled and tripled in price as collectors busted these boxes in hopes of finding a "Gem Mint" card.

5. Card Grading Companies, Beckett, PSA, etc. provide buyers the means to objectively determine card quality.  The better the condition of a card, the more valuable it becomes.  This gives collectors security in their purchases.  Internet buyers are now much less fearful of possible fraud.

6. Group Breaking, already popular with late night card investors, got a shot in the arm from this new collector/investor money.  Group Breakers went searching for more and more product to bust for their audience, which quickly reduced product availability and increased product pricing.

Break customers finding a high demand market for their "big hits" returned to their favorite breaker in search of the next big hit.  Increased prices for "Group Break Spots" did not deter customers because the lure of a possible high dollar hit was too much to resist.

7.  Now that new products are in full production, what will happen to the card market?  Will card values go down? Will unopen box prices go down?  .....I don't think so.  Older boxes have all but disappeared.  Try finding a case of 2013-14 National Treasures Basketball for under $30,000.  I sold a case of 2017 National Treasures NFL Football for $21,000.00 a month ago.  Now the only one I see on the market is $35,000.00.

So that only leaves new product for box buyers and group breakers.  Manufacturers are limited in the number of boxes they can produce because the number of assets (autographs and memorabilia) of the highly desirable rookies and stars is limited.  Mike Trout and Derrek Jeter just don't want to sign 30,000 cards per year.  While I believe the manufactures will increase production to try to feed the demand, demand will exceed availability.

What about card singles?  As long as card investors take a measured approach in selling their newly acquired single cards, card values should continue to go up but at a more reasonable rate.  I see new collectors/investors come into my store every day.  As long as they get a positive experience in our community, they will become buyers and collectors.  I see great days ahead.