Panini's 2012-13 Flawless Basketball box has about a $1495 price tag for some really great looking cards.  But is it worth it?  The easiest way to make that determination is to compare it to Panini's National Treasures Basketball box with a current price tag of $740 and the 2009-10 National Treasures Basketball which sells for $975 per box.  As boxes of high demand low production products get busted, price goes up.  As sealed cases of 2012-13 Flawless Basketball become hard to find, we will say I remember when Flawless was $3000 a case.

 Every box gives you 7 AUTOS, 2 GAME-USED PATCHES and 1 base card numbered to 20 or less with a diamond or emerald embedded in the card.  Per Tracy Hackler of Panini America when asked if all the cards came encapsulated, "Not all of them. But two in each briefcase will be. The other eight cards in each briefcase will come in their own Flawless box."  To me, this means that Panini America has hand selected two hits per box they deem worthy of special treatment.  The other eight cards will each have its own "Flawless" Box.

Panini America 2012-13 Flawless Basketball Jumbo Patches (88)
Most of you have seen the Flawless Basketball checklist and know how many of each card was made.  I've decided to subject myself to experts telling me I am wrong when it comes to trying to predict how much cards will sell for on eBay.  The below predictions on "average value" are just my educated guess based on what I have seen National Treasures singles sell for, and my prediction that cards this beautiful and limited will sell for more than National Treasures singles.

First, let's talk production.  Appoximately 9000 boxes of 2012-13 National Treasures Basketball were made while no more than 2600 Flawless Basketball boxes were produced (Assumes one base card per box.  If we see some boxes with two base cards, less than 2600 were made.).  Below is a side-by-side comparison between Flawless and National Treasures Basketball.  The estimate of boxes of National Treasures "Boxes Made" is based on an average of 1 1/2 base cards per box.  Although the exact distribution of base cards per box is unknown, 1 1/2 base cards per box is about right.  If 60% of the NT boxes have 2 base cards, then 8438 boxes were made.  If 65% of the NT boxes have 2 base cards, then 8182 boxes were made.  If 40% of the NT boxes have 2 base cards, then 9643 boxes were made.  In any case, there are about 3 or 4 times more NT boxes made than Flawless.

                                           FLAWLESS                 NT
Boxes Made                           2600                        9000
Cards Made                          26000                      99000

Kyrie                                        493              743 (340 double autos)
Lillard                                        97                               0
Kobe                                         509                           455
Durant                                      515                           338
Pippen                                      137                            30
Grant Hill                                 386                           255
Anfernee                                  242                            49
Vince Carter                            195                           202
Bill Russell                               160                            64
Magic                                        129                             89
Bird                                           239                           120
Dr. J                                          241                           127
Kareem                                     164                            25
Shaq                                            67                            70
Karl Malone                              153                              0
Anthony Davis                          422                         804
Yao                                               51                           51
Gary Payton                               189                          25      
                         TOTAL             4389                       3447

                         PER BOX        1.688                       0.383

Blake Griffin                              337
Steve Nash                                166
Jason Kidd                                 175
David Robinson                         254
Hakeem Olajuwon                     249
Jerry West                                  144
Elgin Baylor                                  82
Larry Johnson                            153
John Stockton                            200
John Havlicek                              93
Dennis Rodman                          121
                          TOTAL             2092
                          PER BOX        0.805

Kenneth Faried                         107
Tobias Harris                             107
Andre Drummond                     107
Harrison Barnes                        107
Bradley Beal                              107
17 Other Rookies                      952
                        TOTAL              1487
                        PER BOX         0.572


Autographs                                       7                            5
Patches                                             2                            0.4
Other Relics/Print Plates                0                             4.1
Base Cards                                       1                             1.5


FLAWLESS                    TOTAL        BOX   VALUE  PER BOX
Kyrie Autos                      493            0.19       $900       $171
Lillard Autos                       97            0.04     $1500       $  60
Kobe Autos                      509            0.20       $350       $  70
Durant Autos                    515            0.20       $400       $  80
Anthony Davis Autos      422            0.16       $400       $  64
Other Rookie Autos       1487            0.57       $360       $205
Base Rookies                   260            0.10       $300       $  30
Other Base                      2340            0.90       $120       $108
Game Used Patches       5200           2.00        $ 60       $120
Other Autos                   14677           5.64       $100       $564

                AVG VALUE PER BOX                                 $1472               

The above is an educated guess on the average value of cards you will pull from the average box.  Based on the above production counts and what I have seen National Treasures singles sell on eBay, this appears to be a product with the best odds of coming out ahead I have ever seen.  Of course, there are "winners" and "loosers."  If you pull one of the high demand cards you will be a BIG WINNER.  If you buy a "bad box," my guess is you end up with $900 worth of cards.  Panini is hand collating these beauties and I believe Panini will make an effort to make sure no one gets burnt too bad.  

Tracy Hackler says each box has TWO ENCAPSULATED CARDS.  These are cards Panini has deemed worthy of encapsulation.  There will be at least one box per two box case where you come out ahead.  Possibly WAY AHEAD.

Only a total of the "Top 25 Rookies" from the last two drafts are included in 2012-13 Flawless Basketball.  These Autographed RCs are serial numbered to 25 with parallels numbered to 15, 10, 5 and 1.  The "Top 10 Rookies" are included in the unautographed base cards and are numbered to 20 with a diamond embedded in the card, an Emerald Parallel numbered to 5 and a Diamond Parallel 1/1.   The Damian Lillard 2012-13 Select Basketball Gold Prizm #d/10 has sold on eBay for $2000.00.  How much will these Diamond and Emerald Base RCs go for on eBay?

The Kryie Irving National Treasures Auto Prime Patch RC #d/25 has sold for $3500 and more?  One would logically expect the Flawless equivalents should be worth much more given the quality and lower production.  And no doubt, these will be the very best Damian Lillard RCs.  Prices on eBay should reflect this fact.

We have FIVE of the Very Best 2012-13 Flawless Basketball CASES in the Hobby at Sports Cards Plus.  We still have slots open for box breaks and case breaks at $159 per slot.  Every slot gets ONE Flawless Card.  Come on in for details.