Panini's 2012-13 Flawless Basketball box has about a $1495 price tag for some really great looking cards. But is it worth it? The easiest way to make that determination is to compare it to Panini's National Treasures Basketball box with a current price tag of $740 and the 2009-10 National Treasures Basketball which sells for $975 per box. As boxes of high demand low production products get busted, price goes up. As sealed cases of 2012-13 Flawless Basketball become hard to find, we will say I remember when Flawless was $3000 a case.
Every box gives you 7 AUTOS, 2 GAME-USED PATCHES and 1 base card numbered to 20 or less with a diamond or emerald embedded in the card. Per Tracy Hackler of Panini America when asked if all the cards came encapsulated, "Not all of them. But two in each briefcase will be. The other eight cards in each briefcase will come in their own Flawless box." To me, this means that Panini America has hand selected two hits per box they deem worthy of special treatment. The other eight cards will each have its own "Flawless" Box.
Most of you have seen the Flawless Basketball checklist and know how many of each card was made. I've decided to subject myself to experts telling me I am wrong when it comes to trying to predict how much cards will sell for on eBay. The below predictions on "average value" are just my educated guess based on what I have seen National Treasures singles sell for, and my prediction that cards this beautiful and limited will sell for more than National Treasures singles.
First, let's talk production. Appoximately 9000 boxes of 2012-13 National Treasures Basketball were made while no more than 2600 Flawless Basketball boxes were produced (Assumes one base card per box. If we see some boxes with two base cards, less than 2600 were made.). Below is a side-by-side comparison between Flawless and National Treasures Basketball. The estimate of boxes of National Treasures "Boxes Made" is based on an average of 1 1/2 base cards per box. Although the exact distribution of base cards per box is unknown, 1 1/2 base cards per box is about right. If 60% of the NT boxes have 2 base cards, then 8438 boxes were made. If 65% of the NT boxes have 2 base cards, then 8182 boxes were made. If 40% of the NT boxes have 2 base cards, then 9643 boxes were made. In any case, there are about 3 or 4 times more NT boxes made than Flawless.
FLAWLESS NT
Boxes Made 2600 9000
Cards Made 26000 99000
AUTOGRAPHS
Kyrie 493 743 (340 double autos)
Lillard 97 0
Kobe 509 455
Durant 515 338
Pippen 137 30
Grant Hill 386 255
Anfernee 242 49
Vince Carter 195 202
Bill Russell 160 64
Magic 129 89
Bird 239 120
Dr. J 241 127
Kareem 164 25
Shaq 67 70
Karl Malone 153 0
Anthony Davis 422 804
Yao 51 51
Gary Payton 189 25
TOTAL 4389 3447
PER BOX 1.688 0.383
AUTOGRAPHS
Blake Griffin 337
Steve Nash 166
Jason Kidd 175
David Robinson 254
Hakeem Olajuwon 249
Jerry West 144
Elgin Baylor 82
Larry Johnson 153
John Stockton 200
John Havlicek 93
Dennis Rodman 121
TOTAL 2092
PER BOX 0.805
OTHER ROOKIE AUTOS
Kenneth Faried 107
Tobias Harris 107
Andre Drummond 107
Harrison Barnes 107
Bradley Beal 107
17 Other Rookies 952
TOTAL 1487
PER BOX 0.572
TOTAL ABOVE AUTOS AVG. PER BOX = 3.065
BOX BREAK
Autographs 7 5
Patches 2 0.4
Other Relics/Print Plates 0 4.1
Base Cards 1 1.5
ESTIMATING FLAWLESS BOX VALUE
AVG
FLAWLESS TOTAL BOX VALUE PER BOX
Kyrie Autos 493 0.19 $900 $171
Lillard Autos 97 0.04 $1500 $ 60
Kobe Autos 509 0.20 $350 $ 70
Durant Autos 515 0.20 $400 $ 80
Anthony Davis Autos 422 0.16 $400 $ 64
Other Rookie Autos 1487 0.57 $360 $205
Base Rookies 260 0.10 $300 $ 30
Other Base 2340 0.90 $120 $108
Game Used Patches 5200 2.00 $ 60 $120
Other Autos 14677 5.64 $100 $564
AVG VALUE PER BOX $1472
The above is an educated guess on the average value of cards you will pull from the average box. Based on the above production counts and what I have seen National Treasures singles sell on eBay, this appears to be a product with the best odds of coming out ahead I have ever seen. Of course, there are "winners" and "loosers." If you pull one of the high demand cards you will be a BIG WINNER. If you buy a "bad box," my guess is you end up with $900 worth of cards. Panini is hand collating these beauties and I believe Panini will make an effort to make sure no one gets burnt too bad. Tracy Hackler says each box has TWO ENCAPSULATED CARDS. These are cards Panini has deemed worthy of encapsulation. There will be at least one box per two box case where you come out ahead. Possibly WAY AHEAD.
Only a total of the "Top 25 Rookies" from the last two drafts are included in 2012-13 Flawless Basketball. These Autographed RCs are serial numbered to 25 with parallels numbered to 15, 10, 5 and 1. The "Top 10 Rookies" are included in the unautographed base cards and are numbered to 20 with a diamond embedded in the card, an Emerald Parallel numbered to 5 and a Diamond Parallel 1/1. The Damian Lillard 2012-13 Select Basketball Gold Prizm #d/10 has sold on eBay for $2000.00. How much will these Diamond and Emerald Base RCs go for on eBay?
The Kryie Irving National Treasures Auto Prime Patch RC #d/25 has sold for $3500 and more? One would logically expect the Flawless equivalents should be worth much more given the quality and lower production. And no doubt, these will be the very best Damian Lillard RCs. Prices on eBay should reflect this fact.We have FIVE of the Very Best 2012-13 Flawless Basketball CASES in the Hobby at Sports Cards Plus. We still have slots open for box breaks and case breaks at $159 per slot. Every slot gets ONE Flawless Card. Come on in for details.
