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In football card collecting, it is all about the quarterback. The other skill position players have good value but nothing like the quarterbacks.
The 2017 Rookie Class led by Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson has taken single card values and unopen box prices to places never seen before. 2018 Football unopen boxes jumped in costs when Baker Mayfield gained superstar status at the end of the 2018 season.
2019 Football products are doing well but nowhere near preforming like the two previous years. Collectors are expecting more from this year's quarterbacks than they have delivered this far. Are collectors wrong?
Are collectors expecting too much from this year's rookie quarterbacks? Is their memory so short when comparing this year's quarterbacks to rookie superstars of the two previous years? Are 2019 boxes prices about to take off like we saw 2017 & 2018 boxes do some 6 months to 12 months after release? You know what smart investors do? Buy before prices go sky high.
In the analysis below, I have compared the top quarterbacks first starting seasons (2018 for Patrick Mahomes since he only started one game in 2017). Next I compared "Hobby Box Prices" for each year. I have used green to show where I think bargains are to be had.
The top three 2019 rookie quarterbacks look like a pretty safe bet for card value increases over the next 12 months. And, their impact on 2019 football products will soon show price increases. So who will you be? The guy who waits for prices to go up and then buys, or the guy who buys before prices go up.
--------------------- PASSING ----------------------- ------- RUSHING-------
COMP PCT YDs YDs/ATT TDs INT ATT YDs AVG TDs
Watson 126 61.8 1699 8.3 19 8 36 269 7.5 2
Mahomes 383 66.0 5097 8.8 50 12 60 272 4.5 2
Jackson 99 58.2 1201 7.1 6 3 147 695 4.7 5
Mayfield 310 63.8 3725 7.7 27 14 39 131 3.4 0
Murray 273 63.9 2866 6.7 14 6 71 446 6.3 4
Minshew 204 63.1 2432 7.3 14 5 44 243 5.5 0
Jones 228 61.6 2374 6.4 18 11 39 241 6.2 2
2017 2018 %prev yr 2019 %prev yr
Gold Standard...……… $500 $400 80% $145 26%
Certified...……………… $350 $220 63% $105 48%
Unparalleled...………… $275 $200 73% $ 80 40%
Origins...……………….. $275 $200 73% $100 50%
Absolute...……………… $350 $250 71% $150 60%
Spectra...………………... $950 $600 63% $320 53%
XR...……………………… $500 $250 50% $100 40%
Phoenix...……………….. $425 $215 51% $110 51%
PRIZM Hobby................ $1250 $500 40% $187 37%
Immaculate..................... $850 $800 94% $400 50%
Playbook......................... N/A $300 $150 50%
ILLUSIONS...................... N/A $325 $145 45%
Donruss.......................... OUT $150 $ 70 47%
Contenders NFL........... $1050 $500 48%
Donruss Optic................ $475 $400 84%
Plates & Patches............ $300 $200 67%
Select............................... $795 $400 50%
Encased........................... $600 $350 58%
Contenders Optic............ $320 $200 63%
National Treasures........ $5000 $1675 34%
Flawless NFL.................. none $2100
Flawless College $2700 none
